El Nino to return

[Foss]

There's been some discussion about whether we'll have an El Nino this year, but IGFA's magazine International Angler says we're officially experiencing an El Nino this year (warmer than usual waters for us So/Cal anglers).
Also a cool article about understanding "Predator Search Image" and "Predator Swamping" and how it relates to bait/lure selection.
I'll try to have a few extra copies at Fred Hall Del Mar and Day at the Docks as well as some other sweet giveaways. Look for the IGFA booth.
tight lines,
Jack (IGFA rep)

[jiminoc]

I bought a second fridge for the sole purpose of storing dorado this year

[aclemieux]

Originally Posted by jiminoc

I bought a second fridge for the sole purpose of storing dorado this year

Oh, NOW we're screwed! You jinxed it for sure.

[Jaydog]

I surfed Baja Malibu on Sat. with a full suit, booties, & hood and still couldn't take it, probally about 55-56, as cold as I've ever felt the water there, this week our local beaches have been about 58-60, long story short I'm ready for the warm water & tuna crabs!!! Nice first real South Swell of the year really filling in right now, I'm sure after the upwelling from the swell our waters will be 62-63, probally next week since god can't seem to give us a South that holds for more than 3 day's!!!

[Az.monkey]

Originally Posted by Jaydog

I surfed Baja Malibu on Sat. with a full suit, booties, & hood and still couldn't take it, probally about 55-56, as cold as I've ever felt the water there,

Vahina

[Smudge]

I thought it looked out of the south as I drove past the Cliffs yesterday. I'll wait for the 62-64 before I hop in though....

[LTBOLTMAN]

According to this NOAA report, el nino fizzed out in February...I was hoping for a good one too...maybe the flip side will be a good albie year

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION fficeffice" />

issued by

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP

8 March 2007

Synopsis: A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña conditions is possible during the next 2-3 months.
The pattern of anomalously warm SSTs associated with El Niño disappeared from the equatorial Pacific east of the date line during February (compare top and bottom panels in Fig. 1). By the end of the month, SSTs were near average in the vicinity of the date line, and below average over the eastern equatorial Pacific between 140°W and the west coast of ffice:smarttags" />South America.
Also, the main area of anomalously warm SSTs along the equator had become centered well west of the date line, which is also consistent with the disappearance of El Niño.
The latest weekly SST departures have decreased to near 0.5ºC in the Niño 4 region and to near 0 ºC in the Niño 3.4 region, and have become slightly negative in the Niño 3 and Niño 1+2 regions (Fig. 2). Accompanying this drop in SST anomalies, the equatorial upper-ocean heat content (average temperature departures in the upper 300 m of the ocean) decreased rapidly during December 2006-January 2007 (Fig. 3), as the upper ocean cooled and negative temperature anomalies developed. These trends in surface and subsurface ocean temperatures indicate that the warm (El Niño) episode has ended and that conditions are becoming favorable for La Niña to develop.
Most of the statistical and coupled models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) (Fig. 4), indicate additional anomalous cooling during the next 2-3 months. Some of the forecast models, especially the CFS, indicate a rapid transition to La Niña conditions during March-May 2007. This scenario is supported by the latest surface and subsurface oceanic conditions, and the persistence of stronger than-average low-level easterly winds over the central equatorial Pacific.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center website (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 5 April 2007. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304

Figure 1. SST anomalies (°C) for the weeks centered on 31 January 2007 (top) and 28 February 2007 (bottom). The SST anomalies are computed with respect to the 1971-2000 base period means (Xue et al. 2003, J. Climate, 16, 1601-1612).

Figure 2. Time series of SST departures (°C) for the Niño regions. The SST departures are
computed with respect to the 1971-2000 base period means (Xue et al. 2003, J. Climate, 16, 1601-1612).

Figure 3. Anomalous equatorial upper-ocean heat content averaged over the longitude band
180º-100ºW. Heat content anomalies are computed as departures from the 1982-2004
base period means.

Figure 4. Forecasts of the SST anomalies for the Niño 3.4 region, derived from the NCEP/ Climate Forecast System (CFS).

[Smudge]

Well shit.

[Blackfish]

Originally Posted by LTBOLTMAN

According to this NOAA report, el nino fizzed out in February...I was hoping for a good one too...maybe the flip side will be a good albie year

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION fficeffice" />

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
8 March 2007

Synopsis: A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña conditions is possible during the next 2-3 months.
The pattern of anomalously warm SSTs associated with El Niño disappeared from the equatorial Pacific east of the date line during February (compare top and bottom panels in Fig. 1). By the end of the month, SSTs were near average in the vicinity of the date line, and below average over the eastern equatorial Pacific between 140°W and the west coast of ffice:smarttags" />South America.
Also, the main area of anomalously warm SSTs along the equator had become centered well west of the date line, which is also consistent with the disappearance of El Niño.
The latest weekly SST departures have decreased to near 0.5ºC in the Niño 4 region and to near 0 ºC in the Niño 3.4 region, and have become slightly negative in the Niño 3 and Niño 1+2 regions (Fig. 2). Accompanying this drop in SST anomalies, the equatorial upper-ocean heat content (average temperature departures in the upper 300 m of the ocean) decreased rapidly during December 2006-January 2007 (Fig. 3), as the upper ocean cooled and negative temperature anomalies developed. These trends in surface and subsurface ocean temperatures indicate that the warm (El Niño) episode has ended and that conditions are becoming favorable for La Niña to develop.
Most of the statistical and coupled models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) (Fig. 4), indicate additional anomalous cooling during the next 2-3 months. Some of the forecast models, especially the CFS, indicate a rapid transition to La Niña conditions during March-May 2007. This scenario is supported by the latest surface and subsurface oceanic conditions, and the persistence of stronger than-average low-level easterly winds over the central equatorial Pacific.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center website (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 5 April 2007. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304

Figure 1. SST anomalies (°C) for the weeks centered on 31 January 2007 (top) and 28 February 2007 (bottom). The SST anomalies are computed with respect to the 1971-2000 base period means (Xue et al. 2003, J. Climate, 16, 1601-1612).

Figure 2. Time series of SST departures (°C) for the Niño regions. The SST departures are
computed with respect to the 1971-2000 base period means (Xue et al. 2003, J. Climate, 16, 1601-1612).

Figure 3. Anomalous equatorial upper-ocean heat content averaged over the longitude band
180º-100ºW. Heat content anomalies are computed as departures from the 1982-2004
base period means.

Figure 4. Forecasts of the SST anomalies for the Niño 3.4 region, derived from the NCEP/ Climate Forecast System (CFS).

I read that also....I hope NOAA is wrong, it would not be the first time

Another Dorado Season like last year would be just awesome.....I will continue to hope for another NOAA "missed forecast".

[LTBOLTMAN]

i hope their wrong too...but the sat photos of the upwelling cool water in the equitorial region is significant...anyway, NOAA still doesn't KNOWA everthing

[Jan from Humbol]

They've predicted a La Nina this summer.

[Sluester]

I saw a little blurb about El Nina on the tube last night and our lack of rainfall YTD. The water on the equator is supposed to be cooler. They predict a dry hot summer..imagine that.

We'll just have to wait and see.