Big Wet storm on the way.

[Surfdoc]

This was taken from my three sons report on AC. This guy does a great weather report!

"Tuesday Morning Update 2/24"

Happy Birthday, Dad!!
Good Morning everybody,

Well, the big storm is spooling up out there, showing no signs of decay (unique this year) and good signs of a monster that is becoming more organized and more powerful as the hours go on.
Note...the cloudy skies you are seeing across the southland this morning are NOT part of the storm...they are the product of a weak trough passing overhead.

The storm in question is still on track as far as intensity goes, the only thing that needs tweaking every six hours is the timing. I see the San Luis Obispo area getting hit first...maybe breakfast time tomorrow, the Santa Barbara area mid morning, maybe 10am, Ventura just before lunch, and then the LA Basin early to mid afternoon. Once it starts in your neighborhood you are likely to see a 12 to 16 hour stretch of moderate to intense rainfall. Everyone in SoCal will be affected.
So, what is making the storm so powerful?
First thing that comes to mind is an abundant flow of moisture streaming our way from the southwest...the Pineapple Express. The air between us and Hawaii is saturated. Also, the air over us right now is saturated...we had a dewpoint of 97 here in SB this morning. The air is already soaked here...any approaching storm doesn't have to waste energy overriding dry air. Then there are the winds...a big part of the equation...not only the velocities, which will be impressive, but the direction from which they originate.
Why is direction important? We will be slammed by southwest/southerly winds...loaded with moisture, they will slam into our south-facing mountains. Orographic enhancement (really, the lifting of saturated air in this case) will amplify rainfall.
We can easily see 9 to 10 inches in our mountains, and perhaps 4 inches along the coastal plain. This storm is WET.

What will be amazing, also, with this one is the sea state. We will see, beginning Wednesday night, the arrival of the largest swell of the year...perhaps the largest of many years past. North of Conception we will see a west swell to 25ft, the SB Channel will see 13 to 18, and south of there 10 -15. Huge seas, with over 30kt southerly winds...take some time off work and go to your favorite viewing spots...I'm sure it will be impressive!

Dave
My Three Sons

[Mo Betta]

Ok so is there any Bloodydecks guys out there that need a hand? Ill be flaoting a Shower Pan tomorrow in Descanso and thats it for the day. Just let me know if I can help. Frank

[Mstonefish]

Fine weather forecast, lots of info there, and I understood it all


Going to have to check out that surf on Thursday

[Mots]

Jason, this would be a good one for you to go and check out La Jolla cove at low tide. It's gonna be boomin.

[Pickleboy]

i have a 14 foot boat lets run to the cortez and see how bad it really gets

[Mot's Sr.]

Good report. Hey Doug, you better get that 15 hp for that thing, no, I think you better get a 100 hp engine to make it in that boat to the Cortez Bank, better have all your affairs in order before you leave though.

[Stucky]

Feelin pretty good about livin at the base of the mountains, especially in a city that's already got standing water, from the last storm, that has nowhere to go. Guess I'll be sandbaggin my front door and patio.

[Pickleboy]

Originally posted by WaaTooSee
doing that will solve all your problems permanently doug

but the weather forecasters have been wrong b4 and are wrong most of the time . !!

but the thought of no more diapers to change, no more diamonds to buy, mouths to feed, work to do, bills to pay ,pools to clean ,lawns to mow ,etc. etc.

frank you have all the answers dude your the greatest !!!!

[Mots]

Hey stan, are still fishin on Friday

Pickle, all my surf sites are calling for a serious swell event.

[Mots]

Forecast Summary*

Tuesday,Feb 24: 3-4 ft. - waist to shoulder high occasionally 6 ft. and fair conditions.

Wednesday,Feb 25: 3-5 ft. - waist to head high occasionally 8 ft. and poor+ conditions.

Thursday,Feb 26: 6-10 ft. - head high + to double overhead occasionally 15 ft. and poor+ conditions.

Friday,Feb 27: 6-8 ft. - head high + to 3 ft. overhead occasionally 12 ft. and poor-fair conditions.

Saturday,Feb 28: 5-8 ft. - head high to 3 ft. overhead and poor-fair conditions.

Southern California Surf Forecast

Large waves coming this is Adam with your Southern California surf forecast effective Tuesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK: Southern California

Conditions were a little selective on Tuesday…most areas started with light winds but a few spots, like northern OC, had some funky morning sickness for the first couple of hours. Our surf was a mix of WNW swell and some background SW energy that started to filter through the stronger NPAC swell. The average breaks had surf in the 3-4+5’ range, while the standouts had a few inconsistent bigger sets. New WNW swell is expecting to drive up wave heights on Wednesday. A very large (and likely stormy) W-WNW swell will peak on Thursday and hold waves into Friday.

72-HOUR FORECAST

On Wednesday a new WNW swell (285-300) will build. The good winter breaks will see chest to head high surf, as best San Diego breaks see sets running a couple of feet overhead. There will be some small SW swell helping to cross up some of the summer spots but most of the energy will be coming in from the WNW. Conditions on Wednesday are looking sort of manageable in the morning as we see SE winds 10-15 knots for many areas…lightest in San Diego and OC. Expect 10-20+25 knot SE winds in the afternoon with rain likely for many areas.
Thursday a second W-WNW swell (270-300) will start to arrive and will peak throughout the day with large stormy surf. A lot still depends on how this storm behaves as it approaches the coast but at this point it looks like we will see solid 5-8'+ faces at the average spots, 10'+ sets at good exposed breaks, and some sets going 15'+ (triple overhead and bigger) at the best standouts of San Diego, Ventura, and the South Bay. Conditions are looking pretty jacked with 10-20 knot SW-W winds and showers throughout the day.

Friday the large W-WNW swell will be dropping but we can still expect plenty of overhead+ surf for most spots and some 10'-12+ sets at the standouts. Conditions will still be on the messy side as NW winds 10-20 knots continue throughout the day.

LONG RANGE

NPAC: A strong storm near Japan is currently setting up some waves for us. We can expect steep WNW swell (290-300+) to arrive next Monday (Mar 1st). Most of this energy will be fairly steep and will pass by areas not well exposed to the swell. It does look like the best exposed areas of San Diego, V-town, and the South Bay will have overhead-overhead+ sets. This storm still has a bit of developing left to do so check back for updates throughout the week. SPAC: We are currently picking up some small pulses of SW swell…this first pulse is expected to continue on Wednesday with a slightly stronger pulse arriving Thursday/Friday. Expect most of these swells to be lost in the bigger energy coming out of the NPAC.

[Kurt]

F-f-f-f-f-f-f-f-- uck that! The board stays in the garage with shit that big.

[Stucky]

Go big or go home!!!